iPad Prediction Results

Apple - QuickTime - Apple Special Event January 2010

Well, we now have a lot more information about the iPad.

So how well did the predictions hold up? I used Unweary’s prediction template as a measure.

As a comparison, John Gruber (Daring Fireball), used this template and by my count was right on 22 of 32 questions he predicted for an accuracy of 69%.

I was right on 27/37 questions for an accuracy of 73%.

This isn’t really as impressive as it might sound as 6 questions were on the name so even if you got it wrong you were right 5 times.

So what was surprising?

In most cases I was pleasantly surprised. I was surprised by the price which was more affordable than I thought it would be. I didn’t think that almost all iPhone apps could be run and especially that a double size large screen mode would be provided. I am really looking forward to using apps like Brushes and Cenemek Storyboard Composer on the iPad. It is great that existing app purchases can be used with the iPad and that the iWork applications are compatible, enhanced, and affordable. I didn’t anticipate the Apple docks being available at launch.

What did I get wrong? I didn’t guess the name. I thought there might be a camera, perhaps an Itunes enhancement like web access (although there was the iBook store), and iPhone OS 4 (although there was an SDK enhancement). I was also hoping for more integration synergy with the desktop/laptop by using the iPad as a graphic tablet but it seems obvious now that this type of capability will take time and is still a future possibility for establishing the iPad’s niche.

My view is that this is establishing a new platform which can only be properly evaluated once a few versions are released and we see how the market evolves once some prioritized feature enhancements are made.

There has been a lot of criticism of Apple’s announcement but what I have noticed is that it is mostly on what people wished was included initially rather than faults in what was delivered or could be delivered in upcoming versions. To put it into context, the iPhone that is now regarded as a huge success didn’t even have copy and paste when it launched and now using pastebot you can copy and paste between the iphone and Macs. This leaves Apple with opportunities for feature enhancements for new versions while keeping the initial cost lower. It will be really interesting to see how this market develops and what innovative new applications this platform will spark. I am particularly interested in what will be coming in the categories of education and iPad as a large display for sensors.

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